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　　丝杠导轨是高精密直线传动系统的核心部件，下游应用广泛，国产化率低。本篇报告分析了丝杠导轨行业国产化率低的主要原因；在人形机器人和新能源汽车的产业趋势下，国产丝杠导轨有望进入快速发展阶段；长期来看，在以机床为代表的高端领域，随着整机厂竞争力的提升、政策引导支持力度的加大，丝杠导轨实现自主可控是必然趋势。因此我们认为国产丝杠导轨正迎来产业化的重要机遇，给予行业“”评级。

　　The screw guide rail is the core component of high-precision linear transmission systems, widely used downstream, and has a low localization rate. This report analyzes the main reasons for the low localization rate in the screw guide industry; Under the trend of humanoid robots and new energy vehicles, domestic screw guides are expected to enter a stage of rapid development; In the long run, in the high-end field represented by machine tools, with the improvement of the competitiveness of complete machine manufacturers and the increase of policy guidance and support, it is an inevitable trend for screw guides to achieve independent controllability. Therefore, we believe that domestic screw guides are facing an important opportunity for industrialization and give the industry a "recommended" rating.

　　丝杠导轨是高精密直线传动的核心部件。1）丝杠的主要作用是定位，并将旋转运动转换为直线运动，驱动导轨运动。丝杠按结构可分为梯形丝杠、滚珠丝杠和行星滚柱丝杠，其中滚珠丝杠因传动效率高、寿命长，是目前主流的丝杠产物；行星滚柱丝杠加工难度大，产业化应用较少，主要用于对承载力、体积要求高的场景。2）导轨的作用是支承运动构件并使其按规定方向运动。导轨按结构可分为滑动导轨、滚动导轨和液体静压导轨，其中滑动导轨适用于低精度重切削，滚动导轨适用于高精度、高速轻加工；液体静压导轨结构复杂，制造成本高，实际应用较少。

　　The screw guide is the core component of high-precision linear transmission. 1) The main function of a screw is to position and convert rotational motion into linear motion, driving the movement of the guide rail. Screw can be divided into trapezoidal screw, ball screw, and planetary roller screw according to their structure. Among them, ball screw is currently the mainstream screw product due to its high transmission efficiency and long service life; The processing difficulty of planetary roller screw is high, and its industrial application is limited. It is mainly used in scenarios with high requirements for bearing capacity and volume. 2) The function of the guide rail is to support the moving components and make them move in the specified direction. According to their structure, guide rails can be divided into sliding guide rails, rolling guide rails, and hydrostatic guide rails. Sliding guide rails are suitable for low precision heavy cutting, while rolling guide rails are suitable for high-precision, high-speed light machining; The structure of liquid hydrostatic guide rail is complex, the manufacturing cost is high, and its practical application is limited.

　　丝杠导轨全球市场空间达千亿，国内超300亿，机床是主要的下游。根据Value Market Research数据，2019年全球滚动部件的市场规模为195.48亿美元（折合人民币约1300亿元）。根据金属加工杂志社，2022年我国滚动功能部件市场空间约为330亿元。下游应用包括数控机床、半导体制造装置、医疗器械、工业机器人、自动化设备、3C设备、汽车等，其中机床是主要的应用领域。

　　The global market space for screw and guide rails is billions, with over 30 billion in China, and machine tools are the most important downstream. According to Value Market Research data, the global market size for rolling parts in 2019 was $19.548 billion (approximately RMB 130 billion). According to the Metal Processing Magazine, the market space for rolling functional components in China is expected to reach approximately 33 billion yuan in 2022. Downstream applications include CNC machine tools, semiconductor manufacturing equipment, medical devices, industrial robots, automation equipment, 3C equipment, automobiles, etc. Among them, machine tools are the most important application field.

　　丝杠导轨是机床传动系统的重要部件，精度要求高，但占整机的价值量较低（约5%-9%），预计机床丝杠导轨的需求合计约百亿元体量。在机床中，一般是2套直线导轨副及1套滚珠丝杠副组成一个方向的直线运动系统。丝杠导轨直接影响到机床的加工性能，因此精度要求高，丝杠一般在笔5级以上，导轨一般在笔级以上。丝杠导轨（不包括其他传动零部件）合计占机床整机成本的5%-9%，根据机床市场空间，我们测算得到相关丝杠导轨需求约百亿。

　　The screw guide is an important component of the machine tool transmission system, with high precision requirements, but it accounts for a relatively low value of the entire machine (about 5% -9%). It is estimated that the total demand for machine tool screw guide is about 10 billion yuan. In machine tools, a linear motion system is generally composed of two sets of linear guide pairs and one set of ball screw pairs in one direction. The screw guide directly affects the machining performance of the machine tool, so high precision is required. The screw is generally above P5 level, and the guide is generally above P level. The total cost of screw guides (excluding other transmission components) accounts for 5% -9% of the total cost of machine tools. Based on the market space of machine tools, we estimate that the demand for related screw guides is about 10 billion yuan.

　　外资主导市场，国产化率低。欧美公司具有先发优势，且拥有轴承、液压件、高精密磨床等产业优势，技术，属于梯队。20纪80年代开始，日本罢贬碍、狈厂碍、滨碍翱等公司伴随着日本的机床、半导体、汽车制造业等行业成长起来，成为主要生产厂家，属于第二梯队。20世纪90年代后期，台湾的贬滨奥滨狈、础叠叠础、笔惭滨公司及韩国的厂叠颁也崭露头角，作为后发者，产物突破后主打性价比，抓住了制造的发展机遇，在市场享有较高的市场份额，属于第叁梯队。大陆的丝杠导轨公司数量较少，以国企为主，积累时间短，单个公司体量较小。

　　Foreign investment dominates the market, with a low localization rate. European and American enterprises have a first mover advantage, as well as industrial advantages such as bearings, hydraulic components, and high-precision grinding machines. They are technologically advanced and belong to the first tier. Since the 1980s, Japanese companies such as THK, NSK, and IKO have grown alongside Japan's machine tool, semiconductor, and automotive manufacturing industries, becoming major manufacturers and belonging to the second tier. In the late 1990s, HIWIN, ABBA, PMI companies in Taiwan, China, China, and SBC in South Korea also emerged. As latecomers, their products broke through the price performance ratio, seized the development opportunity of Made in China, and enjoyed a high market share in the Chinese market, belonging to the third echelon. There are relatively few screw and guide rail enterprises in mainland China, mainly state-owned enterprises, with a short accumulation time and a small individual enterprise size.

　　我国丝杠导轨与进口产物的差距主要体现在精度保持性、批量生产的稳定性和一致性。精度保持性指维持在初始精度的时间，国产丝杠导轨即使出厂精度能达到笔3级以上，后续也很难在机床整个寿命周期中维持在这一高精度。批量生产的一致性和稳定性指生产一批丝杠，能达到标准要求的产物比例，国产虽然能做到笔0词笔2级的高精度产物，但一致性和稳定性较差，导致无法大规模供应。

　　The gap between China's screw guide and imported products mainly lies in the accuracy retention, stability and consistency of mass production. Accuracy retention refers to the time it takes to maintain the initial accuracy. Even if the precision of domestic screw guides can reach P3 level or above at the factory, it is difficult to maintain this high precision throughout the entire life cycle of the machine tool. The consistency and stability of mass production refer to the proportion of products that can meet the standard requirements for producing a batch of lead screws. Although domestic products can achieve high-precision products of P0~P2 levels, the consistency and stability are poor, resulting in the inability to supply on a large scale.

　　国产产物落后于进口的背后，是整个产业链各个环节（包括设计、原材料、制造设备、加工工艺、检测方法、质量管控等）都存在差距。我们认为丝杠导轨多年来未实现国产化的原因主要是以下2点：1、高精度产物的工艺壁垒未突破：①国内缺少高质量的原材料；②进口螺纹磨床昂贵，交期长达半年以上，投资门槛高；③工艺复杂，工序多，其中涉及多次磨削、热处理、检测环节，国内缺少有经验的、会使用高端磨床的工人。2、产业化缺乏动力：①丝杠导轨过去主要的应用领域在机床，对于机床来讲，丝杠导轨属于重要性极高，但价值量占比较低的产物，因此机床厂商没有动力试用国产；②过去国产机床整机厂的实力不强，进口零部件能够起到保证质量的作用。

　　Behind the backwardness of domestic products compared to imports is the gap in every link of the entire industry chain, including design, raw materials, manufacturing equipment, processing technology, testing methods, quality control, etc. We believe that the main reasons for the lack of localization of screw guides over the years are as follows: 1. The technological barriers to high-precision products have not been overcome: ① There is a lack of high-quality raw materials domestically; ② Imported thread grinders are expensive, with lead times of over six months and high investment barriers; ③ The process is complex and involves multiple steps, including multiple grinding, heat treatment, and testing. There is a lack of experienced workers in China who can use high-end grinding machines. 2. Lack of motivation for industrialization: ① In the past, the main application area of screw guides was in machine tools. For machine tools, screw guides were highly important but had a relatively low value, so machine tool manufacturers did not have the motivation to try domestic products; ② In the past, the strength of domestic machine tool manufacturers was not strong, and imported parts could play a role in ensuring quality.

　　人形机器人和新能源汽车有望加速丝杠导轨国产化到来。1、需求端：①新产业机遇带来的市场空间广阔，新能源汽车中丝杠的单车价值量较燃油车有3倍的提升，百万台人形机器人带来百亿级丝杠需求；②车用对丝杠的精度要求低，成本要求高，更愿意使用国产以降本；③人形机器人所需的反向式行星滚柱丝杠目前仅欧系公司有量产能力（日系、台系均没有相关产物），欧系公司面对新趋势、新方向时更保守，不会大规模扩产进行降本，国产一旦实现产物突破，更有可能成为主流供应商；④机床整机厂的实力不断增强，国内终端客户对国产机床的认可度明显提升，政策持续推进机床核心零部件国产化。2、供给端：国内涌现出许多公司投入丝杠导轨行业，积极迎接新的产业趋势，其中有定位高端、有资金、有实力的公司，也有定位中低端（车用）、有量产能力的公司，改变了过去国企为主的竞争格局。

　　Humanoid robots and new energy vehicles are expected to accelerate the localization of screw guides. 1. On the demand side: ① The market space brought by new industry opportunities is vast, and the single vehicle value of lead screws in new energy vehicles is three times higher than that of fuel vehicles. Millions of humanoid robots bring a demand for lead screws in the billions level; ② The precision requirements for lead screws in vehicles are low, and the cost requirements are high. They are more willing to use domestically produced screws to reduce costs The reverse planetary roller screw required for humanoid robots is currently only mass-produced by European companies (neither Japanese nor Taiwanese have related products). European companies are more conservative when facing new trends and directions, and will not expand production on a large scale to reduce costs. Once domestic products achieve product breakthroughs, they are more likely to become mainstream suppliers The strength of machine tool manufacturers continues to strengthen, and the recognition of domestic end customers for domestically produced machine tools has significantly increased. Policies continue to promote the localization of core components of machine tools. 2. On the supply side: Many domestic enterprises have emerged to invest in the screw and guide rail industry, actively embracing new industry trends. Among them, there are high-end, financially strong enterprises, as well as mid to low-end (automotive) enterprises with mass production capabilities, which have changed the competitive landscape dominated by state-owned enterprises in the past.

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